Monday, May 20, 2013

Mahan was wrong, at least in this case. . .


Since the mid 19th century proponents of Naval Power have pointed to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s seminal work The Influence of Sea Power on History to point to the need for countries to build naval forces in order to protect their interests. Most industrialized, and even other, countries since that time spent lavishly on large naval vessels, including Battleships, Cruisers, Aircraft Carriers, and Destroyers.  Yet, one country that spent this money, building up a formidable fleet for its time, may have been poorly served, and even defeated in large part because of this expense. That country is France, and the time period is between World War I and World War II.

In the inter-War years, France built the fourth largest naval force in the world.  Targeted against its main rival, Italy, the French Navy was an expensive burden for the country, but one deemed essential for its survival by Admiral Darlan, the man most responsible for its construction. Despite being limited by size and scale with adherence to The Washington Treaty of 1922, the French found creative ways to develop and deploy large surface and sub-surface combatants. Here is a list of the major French combat craft in May-June of 1940:[14]
  • -         Modern Battleships: 3
  • -       Old Dreadnought Battleships: 5
  • -       Aircraft Carriers: 1
  • -       Seaplane Carriers: 1
  • -       Heavy Cruisers: 10
  • -       Light Cruisers: 10
  • -       Heavy Destroyers: 32
  • -       Destroyers: 38
  • -       Submarines: 80
  • -       Sloops: 65

Despite the effort put forth to field this powerful fleet, the French Navy never engaged the Italian fleet in battle during World War II.  Most of the French naval vessels sat out the war after the Fall of France, eventually succumbing to destruction at the hands of their allies or by their own crews in order for the ships not to fall into German hands. This is where my proposition on why Mahan may have been wrong in this example comes to the fore.  If one considers the energy and resources put forward in the development of the French fleet, and the opportunity-cost associated with its construction, it is easy to wonder how else those resources could have been actually used in the war.

France perceived its primary opponent at sea to be Italy. Yet, France was not existentially at risk at sea the way it was by land.  I understand this is Monday morning quarterbacking, but imagine for a moment that France had used the steel from most of those ships, particularly the Capital ships, to extend the Maginot Line across the Benelux frontier, not just across from the German border.  Or, had they listened to some of their more attune to military tactics commanders, and built more tanks and developed proper use of land warfare doctrine. If France had not had a massive part of its industrial base focused on a non-existential threat, but rather focused that industry and manpower toward the land wolf across its border, it may have been able to counter the smaller army that Germany used to crush it in 1940.

The French saw themselves as a great power.  A great power, according to Mahan, must have a Navy. Yet, in France’s strategic decision making, a navy was marginal, while an army was essential.  France did have a large army, but not one designed or built to fight the war that France experienced. Had France made a different strategic calculation about its external threats, it may have avoided conquest by Germany.

I do not feel that this is the only case of countries misallocating resources to potential conflicts that are not the wars they will actually face.  Please let me know if you know of other examples of this kind of misallocation, or if you have any comments on this brief assessment of France’s development of a large navy before World War II.