This weekend I passed the future location of the World War
II monument in between the Lincoln and the Washington monuments. This location made me think of the memorial
to a war to which I have devoted much of my life studying, and realize what it
is I have to say to the class this afternoon. As students of international
affairs I know that you are all aware of the current problems facing the world;
from economic to political instability.
Unfortunately we are not coming to the right conclusions from those problems.
It
is my aim this afternoon to address a situation that we, if things go as they
currently are, will be facing in the not too distant future; World War IV. As an avid student of international security
policy, history, economics, and social movements I feel I am well qualified to
give this assessment. To address this
situation I will discuss two aspects of the current international system. I will then shed light on the possible
actions available to the world to avert the impending beginning of World War
IV. The two aspects of the current
international system I will discuss are the economic and the political
situations of the world.
The
first aspect of the current international system I would like to address is the
economic situation of the world today.
Walking on the streets of Washington, just as in any US city, one would
not know that the rest of the world is going through currency turmoil leading
to economic crisis, deflationary scares, trade-flow depletions, and attempts to
export out of current economic condition, but the US stock market is bubbled to
the point that at any moment it will pop sending the US into the economic
decline the rest of the world is already experiencing. As the well-respected magazine the Economist declared in its issue of
12 September, 1998 “The US economy is preventing the world fall into
depression, but that will only last so long as speculators are busy in other
regions. Once they unleash themselves to
pop the US bubble we are all in for a plummet unparalleled since the
1920’s.” The Economist is conservative
when it comes to making predictions, but this was a blatant statement that the
world is not safe when it is based on the US economy alone. World trade flows are suffering just as the
two regions of the world that are doing best (Europe and the US) are beginning
to duke out a trade war over an issue of such great importance it can be
summarized in one word: Bananas. The world economy today is disintegrating
under the heavy burden of domestic interest groups. This will only get worse as long as the
United States, Europe, and Japan continue to look internally for answers to
worldwide problems.
The
second aspect of the current international system I would like to discuss is
the political situation facing the world.
Today we face a world where political stability is rare and leadership
lacking. Jane’s Defense Review wrote in
an article from January, 1999 “We are in
the slippery-slide toward World War.”
Jane’s was referencing the coming conflict between the United States and
China, but it is not the only publication discussing the problems of the world
in the security area. Just scanning
across the daily headlines of the Washington Post this past week, I saw
articles discussing the possible deployment of US troops to Kosova, the lack of
credibility in NATO’s threats of force against Serbia, Iraq’s ignoring of the
demands of the United Nations, North Korea’s ability to target US cities with
weapons of mass destruction, proliferation possibilities with Weapons of Mass
Destruction, Russian political turmoil and the degradation of the instruments
of Russian security, China’s political and military insecurity and its will to
incorporate Taiwan back into the Center Kingdom, and Europe inability to make a
Common Foreign and Security Policy. With
a world in such political turmoil it was only through economic growth that
these political problems did not cause a war so far. But now such growth is out of the question,
so what will happen?
My answer
to you this afternoon is World War IV will happen within the next 15 years
unless severe actions are taken by the United States and its democratic
allies. Referencing the period before
World War II there are many recommendations that can be made to avert the war
on the horizon. The G8 must take a
strong leadership role internationally by reforming internally as well as
shoring up the Bretton Woods system through reforms of the IMF to allow for
political stability as well as economic responsibility. The democracies of the world must increase
their support of democratic parties worldwide preventing dictators from coming
to power based on blame for economic failures domestically. The United States and the European Union must
prevent the issue over Banana subsidies from weakening the WTO, and must boost
trade greatly. The transatlantic
partnership idea should be reopened and increased in scope to incorporate all
capitalists in an integrated market to allow for the full exploitation of the
possibilities free trade really offers the world when unleashed from government
weakness in the face of domestic interest groups. Basically, my advice is to look past the
present situation into a longer term goal and proceed based on recognition of the
real problems facing the world rather than the perception acquired from an
unwillingness to look past the borders of ones country for answers.
In closing
I would like to reiterate the two aspects of the situation facing the
international system which will lead to World War IV. The first aspect is the economic situation
facing the world which is made up of a worldwide downturn in trade, growth, and
stability kept alive solely by the strength of the US economy which is a bubble
about to burst. The second aspect is the
political situation facing the world, where we find political instability, a
lack of democratic credibility, and a set of territorial expansionistic
countries looking for ways to increase their power. My answer to these problems is greater
international cooperation, integration, and a taking of the view that the
problems are worldwide and cannot be solved by domestic means. We can avert World War IV through economic
and political policies if we make the right decisions now. It is up to the world leaders whether or not
the correct policies are taken, but it is our future they are deciding. I hope they make the right decision.
